The story about safe havens has reminded us that it's time again to look at the crime stats for Lewisham borough. Here are the annual stats since 2009/10, per thousand people.
The latest Met Police crime map has data for the year up until May 2012 and crime across the borough is down again, from a total of 28,460 to 26,593. There are big drops for violence against the person, domestic crime and robbery. The number of murders fell from 8 to 4 while the number of rapes rose from 131 to 155. Racist, religious and homophobic hate crime also rose. In Brockley ward (and there is a lot more to Brockley than that), every type of crime fell, except for drug offences, which rose slightly, perhaps reflecting the tougher approach the police are taking to drug dealing in the area.
You can track crime rates by ward here. There are notable drops for burglary in Brockley (-18.2%), violence against the person in Telegraph Hill (-13.4%) and robbery in Crofton Park (-21%)
Sexual offences rose across the borough and increased by as much as 50% in Ladywell (against a very low base).
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comments:
ML
said...
I wonder if those flasher incidents in the Ladywell area made the sex crime figure go up? Or would they not be included?
Very dodgy graphic though, where does that come from? The bars start at about 90 on the Y's so if one doesn't read the numbers it looks like a very big fall.
@Max, it's from the Met site. Take your point about the Y axis, but the numbers are nice and big and we're all taught at school to read the axes. I like to credit BC readers with a high degree of intelligence - even the ones who go out of their way to be moronic.
Well, I think that the graph should tell the story without the need of numbers, the numbers should add information, not clarify (that two third of the bars are missing).
Last week 3 cars were broken into in Tyrwhitt, thats the 3 I know about. All the roads hereeabouts are freshly littered with broken window glass. I know from speaking to a couple of victims that they didn't report it to the police, 'too much hassle' etc. We're experiencing a mini car crime wave at the moment, and where are the police?
@Max - fine, it's their graph, not mine. The figures are clearly explained in my article. But I would say that a) every newspaper and every TV news show regularly uses graphs that truncate one of the axes because b) truncation is a useful way to illustrate trends. But anyway, your comment should help prevent anyone from being seduced in to feeling safer and happier than they ought ;)
@A1642 - evidence for that conspiracy theory please?
Yes, no big deal, it's true, people should read carefully, and it's also true that newspapers have truncated graphs for a long time (at least for as long as they've been printing puns, hyperbole, silly questions as if they were news...), but I don't think that they would have truncated it this way if the figures had gone the other way round. I suggest someone at that MET department has been very clever with graphs.
Is there a demonstrated link between beat policemen and crime reduction? Genuine question. Obviously if the policeman is there to stop a crime it's a good thing and it make people FEEL safer but are police in cars better and do we actually need to spend the money in investigating crimes which could mean more suits doing the investigating? Boots on the ground are a good headline but I'd like to understand if that's the whole answer. Detection rates are at least as important as prevention.
I wasn't talking about 'beat policemen' in the usual sense. But a team of dedicated plain clothes officers backed up by the uniforms when needed. I would have thought that any arrest made by a policeman in plain clothes catching the unsuspected crook is a demonstrated link. Not stopping crime, but making an arrest at or during the act. Probably though too much in these 'I know my rights' times.
Nick, why do you take a position of 'conspiracy theory' to deride any suggestion that these figures may be slanted in a way that suggests all is not so ordered?
Because it is a conspiracy theory to suggest that unnamed people in power are manipulating official records to rewrite history without any proper evidence to support that fact.
That requires a 'conspiracy' of lots of people to conceal the truth. One person acting alone could not do it.
Some conspiracies are real. But before I take something seriously, I need evidence. These stats are poured over by all kinds of independent experts. They also tally with the crime survey results. I also don't believe that - in a time of austerity, when police face cuts - it would even be in the police's best interests to underestimate crime.
But please, back up your claims. Happy to be persuaded.
I doubt anyone would object to arresting someone "at or during a crime" but given a finite amount of money what's the best balance? Investigation and prosecution rates are not great and that may not be directly affected by police on the streets. If all we want are people stoping crime at the point of it being computed then all we have are nationalised security guards. Like I say, I'm not saying that visible policing isn't useful even if it only makes peolpe feel safer which is an issue in its self,
Of course the police don't know about crime if no one reports it, but if they walked around they'd see the evidence of broken car windows in the gutters all around the conservation area. People don't report crime because the police give the impression of being disinterested. A few months back there was a spate of burglaries in Tyrwhitt. I suggested the police put up a yellow witnesses wanted sign. The policeman I said this to looked quite shocked when I said it might at least give the impression they were taking some notice of the burglaries. 'That would upset and frighten the residents' was his reply. Some decking was stolen from a nearby empty house, I didn't report it. Then overnight some more went, so I called the police. A day later a PCSO turned up. He said how could I be sure the owner hadn't removed it (very unlikely), and then that he couldn't label it as a crime or pursue it because I wasn't the owner.
2114 "gone to hell"? Really? I can only talk about Brockley but I've been burgled once (just before Christmas on Tyrwhitt, so probably part of the spate above) and mugged once, yonks ago, by Honor Oak Park station. Never had any problem with my car. Okay, so I'd rather neither of these incidents had happened but 2 in 12 years hardly implies there are demon-driven dangers on every corner burning and stealing their way through the streets every night. In the scheme of things, I feel safe.
Although, no doubt in an instance of sod's law will find sonmething disasterous happens in the next 24 hours!
You are not horrified that 155 women were raped in Lewisham? They're all someone's daughter or mother or sister or friend.
They have been violated in this small borough and you think it's a joke.
It means there are dozens and dozens of rapists out there in Lewisham. Maybe they live next door to you. Maybe they work at the local shop. Maybe they read this blog.
I find it deeply chilling that there are so many men out there who perpetrate this vile vile act. Yes, they should be castrated. They won't be raping again after that.
What's wrong with prison all of a sudden? Your answer to everything is 'castrate them' Lou. It's all about cocks with you. Might be worth looking at that.
I was joking (a) about the hell comment, and (b) about your general DM-plus approach to life.
Not about the rapes.
As I understand it, castration is not particularly effective at reducing recidivism for violent sexual crime. But never mind, I suppose it would be satisfying in a vengeance kind of way, although Bosch would have portrayed a much more direct analogue punishment in an eye-for-an-eye way.
Lou, sounds like you need to move to a country with a more retributive form of justice. Something meadevil, Saudi Arabia or one of the slightly more chaotic countries....ironically where women are treated like shit.
It's great when you reveal your reactionary, visceral self. Luckily most adults in responsible positions are rational human beings. You would be scary if you weren't so laughable.
And as danja so expertly said. Disapproving of your chimp like approach to justice is not the same in any way as not being bothered by the crime or "being o the side" of the criminals. It just isn't, you REALLY can't see that can you?
I think Lou would propose maximum exposure. Prime time TV with a live audience. Teenage boys in the front row to maximise the deterrence affect. Lou would bound down the steps and chew the testicles off then stand up, blood and gore running down his chin chanting "I AM THE LAW!" laugh manically and faint.
No, you don't understand. This is 'O' level stuff. Your blood thirsty, meadevil idea of justice is laughable. Not rape. I'm laughing at you and your idiocy. You're committing a category error, look it up. Luckily the world is run by people smarter than you so your rants will just bounce around the Internet along with flat earth theories and the blood libel. Anything else you want a hand with?
Unfortunately I only have various statements made by past and serving police officers.
If you're saying that statistics cannot be manipulated - at any stage - in the process of gathering and collating 'findings' too; then you are too blinkered for me. (Or part of the very conspiracy you deride.) You also display an absolute lack of knowledge in relation to law enforcement and its various processeses. Many allow for manipulation by just one or more self-interested parties.
So you think the best way to asses crime is by anecdotes and that trying to collect data is pointless?
Of course stats can be manipulated, they won't be 100% accurate but anecdotes are a very poor alternative. "my grandad lived to 84 and smoked all his life" statistics proved what a shabby argument that was.
Suggesting that I might too be part of a conspiracy does nothing to convince me that you aren't a conspiracy theorist.
And so you've met some policemen, who've told you that this is not a perfect world and there are problems with the system. I have such a policeman in my family, who tells me similar things. But the fact that statistical evidence gathering is imperfect does not mean the figures are being manipulated.
The fact that the trends (downwards) tally with British Crime Survey figures (which are collated to insure against the risk that police figures are not misrepresenting the story) suggests that these figures are a reasonably good guide to trends.
One unfortunate outcome of visiting the open studios in Tyrwhitt is that I learned of 3 burglaries in the road in June, and that the so-called safer neighbourhood teams are missing presumed snatched by the Olympics.
40 comments:
I wonder if those flasher incidents in the Ladywell area made the sex crime figure go up? Or would they not be included?
"Sexual offences rose across the borough and increased by as much as 50% in Ladywell"
I believe that statistic is based one on specific incident of someone falling over at the christmas party.
Very dodgy graphic though, where does that come from?
The bars start at about 90 on the Y's so if one doesn't read the numbers it looks like a very big fall.
@Max, it's from the Met site. Take your point about the Y axis, but the numbers are nice and big and we're all taught at school to read the axes. I like to credit BC readers with a high degree of intelligence - even the ones who go out of their way to be moronic.
Nice backhanded compliment Nick - I actually missed the axis and did initially feel it represented an enormous drop.
morons, yes, well, one persons 'moron' is another persons 'propping up the bar in the Gantry' - we always assume that what we think is correct . . .
Well, I think that the graph should tell the story without the need of numbers, the numbers should add information, not clarify (that two third of the bars are missing).
Yes, it's a great graph for the purposes of spin!
The figures are massaged. Crime will not reduce in Lewisham until the police mothball their uniforms, and put foot to the beat in plain clothes.
Last week 3 cars were broken into in Tyrwhitt, thats the 3 I know about.
All the roads hereeabouts are freshly littered with broken window glass. I know from speaking to a couple of victims that they didn't report it to the police, 'too much hassle' etc. We're experiencing a mini car crime wave at the moment, and where are the police?
@Max - fine, it's their graph, not mine. The figures are clearly explained in my article. But I would say that a) every newspaper and every TV news show regularly uses graphs that truncate one of the axes because b) truncation is a useful way to illustrate trends. But anyway, your comment should help prevent anyone from being seduced in to feeling safer and happier than they ought ;)
@A1642 - evidence for that conspiracy theory please?
Anon. 18.00
The answer is in your post.
They don't know about it as no one has reported it.
Yes, no big deal, it's true, people should read carefully, and it's also true that newspapers have truncated graphs for a long time (at least for as long as they've been printing puns, hyperbole, silly questions as if they were news...), but I don't think that they would have truncated it this way if the figures had gone the other way round. I suggest someone at that MET department has been very clever with graphs.
Is there a demonstrated link between beat policemen and crime reduction? Genuine question. Obviously if the policeman is there to stop a crime it's a good thing and it make people FEEL safer but are police in cars better and do we actually need to spend the money in investigating crimes which could mean more suits doing the investigating? Boots on the ground are a good headline but I'd like to understand if that's the whole answer. Detection rates are at least as important as prevention.
I wasn't talking about 'beat policemen' in the usual sense. But a team of dedicated plain clothes officers backed up by the uniforms when needed. I would have thought that any arrest made by a policeman in plain clothes catching the unsuspected crook is a demonstrated link. Not stopping crime, but making an arrest at or during the act. Probably though too much in these 'I know my rights' times.
I of course meant 'unsuspecting' crook. If he was 'unsuspected' he would of course go about unarrested.
I take it all back. I perused the stats and there are truncated graphs giving a first impression of crime doubling.
Nick, why do you take a position of 'conspiracy theory' to deride any suggestion that these figures may be slanted in a way that suggests all is not so ordered?
Because it is a conspiracy theory to suggest that unnamed people in power are manipulating official records to rewrite history without any proper evidence to support that fact.
That requires a 'conspiracy' of lots of people to conceal the truth. One person acting alone could not do it.
Some conspiracies are real. But before I take something seriously, I need evidence. These stats are poured over by all kinds of independent experts. They also tally with the crime survey results. I also don't believe that - in a time of austerity, when police face cuts - it would even be in the police's best interests to underestimate crime.
But please, back up your claims. Happy to be persuaded.
I doubt anyone would object to arresting someone "at or during a crime" but given a finite amount of money what's the best balance? Investigation and prosecution rates are not great and that may not be directly affected by police on the streets. If all we want are people stoping crime at the point of it being computed then all we have are nationalised security guards. Like I say, I'm not saying that visible policing isn't useful even if it only makes peolpe feel safer which is an issue in its self,
Lewisham has gone to hell in the last 40 years.
Although it is slightly better now than say 10 years ago.
Of course the police don't know about crime if no one reports it, but if they walked around they'd see the evidence of broken car windows in the gutters all around the conservation area. People don't report crime because the police give the impression of being disinterested. A few months back there was a spate of burglaries in Tyrwhitt. I suggested the police put up a yellow witnesses wanted sign. The policeman I said this to looked quite shocked when I said it might at least give the impression they were taking some notice of the burglaries. 'That would upset and frighten the residents' was his reply. Some decking was stolen from a nearby empty house, I didn't report it. Then overnight some more went, so I called the police. A day later a PCSO turned up. He said how could I be sure the owner hadn't removed it (very unlikely), and then that he couldn't label it as a crime or pursue it because I wasn't the owner.
2114 "gone to hell"? Really? I can only talk about Brockley but I've been burgled once (just before Christmas on Tyrwhitt, so probably part of the spate above) and mugged once, yonks ago, by Honor Oak Park station. Never had any problem with my car. Okay, so I'd rather neither of these incidents had happened but 2 in 12 years hardly implies there are demon-driven dangers on every corner burning and stealing their way through the streets every night. In the scheme of things, I feel safe.
Although, no doubt in an instance of sod's law will find sonmething disasterous happens in the next 24 hours!
I'm absolutely shocked there were 155 rapes.
That's virtually one every other day.
And we all know rape is dramatically under reported so the real figure would be much higher.
It's staggering that there are so many evil sex criminals in Lewisham.
If they're caught they should be castrated. End of.
Hell isn't what it used to be, I agree. We need Lou to stop the rot, and get the whole Hieronymus Bosch thing going properly again.
Danja
You are not horrified that 155 women were raped in Lewisham? They're all someone's daughter or mother or sister or friend.
They have been violated in this small borough and you think it's a joke.
It means there are dozens and dozens of rapists out there in Lewisham. Maybe they live next door to you. Maybe they work at the local shop. Maybe they read this blog.
I find it deeply chilling that there are so many men out there who perpetrate this vile vile act. Yes, they should be castrated. They won't be raping again after that.
I'm not horrified. Are you?
I'd be horrified if I saw someone running at me with a sharp knife or if I thought I was about to be beheaded.
I don't think you understand what the word 'horrified' means.
Moron.
What's wrong with prison all of a sudden?
Your answer to everything is 'castrate them' Lou. It's all about cocks with you.
Might be worth looking at that.
I was joking (a) about the hell comment, and (b) about your general DM-plus approach to life.
Not about the rapes.
As I understand it, castration is not particularly effective at reducing recidivism for violent sexual crime. But never mind, I suppose it would be satisfying in a vengeance kind of way, although Bosch would have portrayed a much more direct analogue punishment in an eye-for-an-eye way.
"it's all about cocks with you" now that's funny.
Lou, sounds like you need to move to a country with a more retributive form of justice. Something meadevil, Saudi Arabia or one of the slightly more chaotic countries....ironically where women are treated like shit.
It's great when you reveal your reactionary, visceral self. Luckily most adults in responsible positions are rational human beings. You would be scary if you weren't so laughable.
And as danja so expertly said. Disapproving of your chimp like approach to justice is not the same in any way as not being bothered by the crime or "being o the side" of the criminals. It just isn't, you REALLY can't see that can you?
would that be chemical castration or surgical castration Lou?
I think Lou would propose maximum exposure. Prime time TV with a live audience. Teenage boys in the front row to maximise the deterrence affect. Lou would bound down the steps and chew the testicles off then stand up, blood and gore running down his chin chanting "I AM THE LAW!" laugh manically and faint.
I'd watch and and so would you.
Staggering that you all find rape so amusing.
Still, if you have banal lives I guess you have to get your kicks somehow.
No, you don't understand. This is 'O' level stuff. Your blood thirsty, meadevil idea of justice is laughable. Not rape. I'm laughing at you and your idiocy. You're committing a category error, look it up. Luckily the world is run by people smarter than you so your rants will just bounce around the Internet along with flat earth theories and the blood libel. Anything else you want a hand with?
Large fries please, no pickle.
You make pigs smoke. You feed beef burgers to swans.
@brockleynick
Unfortunately I only have various statements made by past and serving police officers.
If you're saying that statistics cannot be manipulated - at any stage - in the process of gathering and collating 'findings' too; then you are too blinkered for me. (Or part of the very conspiracy you deride.) You also display an absolute lack of knowledge in relation to law enforcement and its various processeses. Many allow for manipulation by just one or more self-interested parties.
So you think the best way to asses crime is by anecdotes and that trying to collect data is pointless?
Of course stats can be manipulated, they won't be 100% accurate but anecdotes are a very poor alternative. "my grandad lived to 84 and smoked all his life" statistics proved what a shabby argument that was.
Suggesting that I might too be part of a conspiracy does nothing to convince me that you aren't a conspiracy theorist.
And so you've met some policemen, who've told you that this is not a perfect world and there are problems with the system. I have such a policeman in my family, who tells me similar things. But the fact that statistical evidence gathering is imperfect does not mean the figures are being manipulated.
The fact that the trends (downwards) tally with British Crime Survey figures (which are collated to insure against the risk that police figures are not misrepresenting the story) suggests that these figures are a reasonably good guide to trends.
One unfortunate outcome of visiting the open studios in Tyrwhitt is that I learned of 3 burglaries in the road in June, and that the so-called safer neighbourhood teams are missing presumed snatched by the Olympics.
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